The Economy Does Better Under Democrats, but Most People Don’t Know That

By Thor Benson  |  November 11, 2025 | 12:41pm
Photo by The White House
Economy Economy
The Economy Does Better Under Democrats, but Most People Don’t Know That

The economy isn’t doing great right now, and that’s largely due to Trump’s tariffs, his immigration actions, inflation and other factors. One of the main reasons many Americans voted for Trump was that they thought he’d bring down prices, but the prices of common goods have actually gone up. Another major problem right now is rising layoffs, as companies are deciding to tighten their belts and reduce their workforces.

As Bloomberg recently highlighted, layoffs are the highest they’ve been since 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, and then 2009 before that, which was right after the financial crash. Trump was president during COVID, and the financial crash was caused by policies enacted during the Bush administration and administrations before that. 

It would appear the economic record over the past 15 years or so shows a pretty good economy under Presidents Obama and Biden. Historically, the economy has performed better under Democrats than Republicans, yet Republicans are often seen by voters as better on the economy. 

“The economy certainly does better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans, on average,” Jeffrey Frankel, a professor of capital formation and growth at Harvard University, told Splinter. “Of course, there are many big influences on the course of the economy, beyond who the president is.”

Frankel says it’s a “statistical fact” that measures like employment, average income and more are better under Democratic presidents over the last several decades. Polls often show, however, that Americans say Republicans are better at managing the economy. Economists also frequently are not aware of the Democratic advantage. 

“Most economists are unaware of these facts. One might think that such a striking finding would be well-known among economists,” Frankel says. “But we all want to sound professional, objective and non-partisan. We mostly don’t talk about it—for fear that we won’t be believed and will sound partisan.”

Frankel says that the Trump administration is “incompetent” and not managing the economy well, and voters see that. Recent polling shows this is true. They’re not happy with what Trump’s been doing in recent months. It remains to be seen if this will have long-term effects on perceptions of how the economy performs under different parties.

“Everybody lectures the Democratic Party on how badly they screwed up politically and how they need to fundamentally rethink their entire approach to respond better to the economic concerns of those who have been left behind,” Frankel says. “My personal view is that just because the MAGA bubble has gone on for 10 years, that is no reason to bet against it crashing soon, as the economy slows down, prices go up, and more voters come to their senses.”  

During Trump’s first term, he got the treatment Republicans tend to get when it comes to the economy. Republicans are regarded as if they know what they’re doing and will outperform Democrats, even though that’s not statistically true. With Trump constantly throwing wrenches into the U.S. economy and making it worse, without much hesitation, perhaps that narrative will finally shift. 

 
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