An analysis released Friday by the non-partisan KFF healthcare research group found that some health insurance plans sold on the Affordable Care Act marketplace next year will be a lot more expensive starting in 2026 — 75 percent more expensive, on average, enough to likely convince millions of people to simply do without. This is a direct result of Republican policy preferences.
The KFF analysis is based on insurance companies’ annual submissions to state regulators justifying changes to their premiums for the following year. This time around, the insurers are all focused on one thing: the end of enhanced premium tax credits under the ACA. Instituted during the Biden administration at the height of the Covid pandemic, these extremely effective subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025.
“This is expected to cause healthier enrollees to drop their coverage and create a sicker risk pool,” the KFF authors wrote. The Congressional Budget Office has found that the end of the premium credits will result in 4.2 million more uninsured people — a fate the party currently controlling the government could stave off tomorrow, if it felt like it, by simply extending the credits.
The number of people enrolling through Obamacare markets more than doubled thanks in part to the credit — this past January, such enrollment hit an all-time high of 24 million people. The success of such a program, to Republicans who cannot relinquish the dream of repealing the ACA in part or in full, simply will not stand. They have railed against the subsidies in budget documents and in public, insisting that taxpayers are forced to “foot the bill” for, uh, millions of people to be able to afford medical care.
The KFF found some other issues are playing a role in price hikes, though at much smaller rates. Tariffs might drive up the cost of “drugs, medical equipment, and supplies,” but this is driving just a three percent rate increase.
“Early indications are that individual market insurers will be increasing premiums in 2026 by more than they have since 2018, the last time policy uncertainty contributed to sharp premium increases,” the KFF authors wrote. Hm, who was in charge back then?
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