We Are NOT Scaremongering, But You Should Be Gripped By Fear of a Global Recession Right Now

By Hamilton Nolan  |  August 14, 2019 | 1:47pm
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Is a recession coming? The very nature of time assures us that, yes, sooner or later, a recession—like all events—will come. But should you be riddled with anxiety about a recession coming soon? Also yes.

ITEM: The yield curve, a chart that measures two basic numbers but which sounds very sophisticated, has inverted in the UK for the first time since 2007. Yield curve inversion is traditionally a recession warning because it means that investors expect the near future to be worse than the far future. Memorize this phrase: “Yield curve inversion.” Now you’ll sound smart at the next party you go to, which will be in a homeless shelter.

ITEM: But is the yield curve inverted here in the U.S., the engine of the global economy? Yes.

ITEM: Germany’s economy contracted in the past quarter, and Europe’s only responsible nation is “teetering on the edge of a recession.”

ITEM: Argentina’s stock market fell 48% IN A SINGLE DAY this week, one of the biggest one-day drops of a national stock market in modern history.

ITEM: The percentage of big investors expecting a recession is now at an eight-year high.

ITEM: Bank of America puts the chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at one in three, which is vague and goofy, but in Economic Forecaster Language that is quite a strong warning.

ITEM: Economic analysts say that an escalation of the U.S. trade war with China would likely propel the U.S. into a recession within a year. So, nothing to worry about as long as you trust the Trump administration to be reasonable, wise, and prudent.

ITEM: “When assumptions about how the world works are shattered, a global downturn is often the result.”

The good news is that since this recession will afflict the entire global economy, there will be nowhere to hide.

If you are looking for something to distract you from this anxiety, find a quiet place, turn on some relaxing music, and contemplate the fact that CEOs are paid 278 times the salary of their average employee.

 
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