A new Harvard study on police shootings and race is causing all kinds of controversy
In his speech addressing the shootings of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile, President Barack Obama cited a litany of statistics showing how minorities are disproportionately targeted by police. Among them: Black people are 30% more likely than whites to be pulled over, and after being pulled over are 3-times more likely to be searched. In 2015, black people were shot by police at twice the rate of white people, and arrested at twice the rate,
So when Harvard economist Roland Fryer published a study Monday that purported to show that police aren’t racist when they’re involved in shootings, many observers were skeptical.
Fryer and his team set out to answer a narrow question: whether there are racial biases in the split-second decision as to whether an officer uses lethal (gun) or non-lethal (taser) force during an encounter with a citizen.
“The empirical thought experiment here is that a police officer arrives at a scene and decides whether or not to use lethal force,” he writes, and continues, “This does not, however, rule out the possibility that there are important racial differences in whether or not these police-civilian interactions occur at all.”
To answer the question, he and his team use two datasets—one, a detailed set of officer-involved shootings from the Houston Police Department, and the other a slightly less detailed summary of officer weapon discharges from Austin, Dallas, Houston, six large Florida counties, and Los Angeles County.
Altogether, Fryer and his team looked at 1,332 shootings between 2000 and 2015, a little more than a third of which were gleaned from the Houston data. They found that, contrary to what many would expect, minorities were slightly less likely to be shot when a shooting occurred: black people are 23.8% percent less likely to be shot by police, relative to white people. Hispanics are 8.5% percent less likely to be shot.
“Even when officers report civilians have been compliant and no arrest was made, blacks are 21.3% more likely to endure some form of force. Yet, on the most extreme use of force – officer-involved shootings – we are unable to detect any racial differences in either the raw data or when accounting for controls.”
Fryer placed some important caveats on his analysis. It is, of course, possible that the departments willingly supplied the data because they were “enlightened” or not concerned about what the analysis would reveal. Three jurisdictions Fryer and his team reached out to declined to participate in the study. “This is likely not a representative set of cities,” Fryer admits.
He also says that bias may be introduced because it is the officers themselves who provide details of the shootings. As Fryer puts it, “Accounting for contextual variables recorded by police officers who may have an incentive to distort the truth is problematic.” The dataset for Houston was also far more extensive than for other jurisdictions, as it included police-civilian interactions in which lethal force may have been justified.