The E.U. has slapped heavy economic sanctions on Russia, which, crucially, has meant cutting itself off from cheap Russian gas. Whatever one might think of the fairness of the policy — and it is understandable to reflexively support an action intended to harm Russia as it continues its barbaric invasion — the sorry truth is that it has not worked. Russia’s economy, not only has not been severely harmed by sanctions, but it is actually doing well, whereas Europe is teetering on the brink of economic and social crisis.
By attempting to break its reliance on Russian energy, Europe has, instead of working towards domestic green alternatives, turned to the United States, importing American liquid natural gas (LNG) at considerably higher prices than it ever paid for Russian gas. It has spent billions on building up the necessary infrastructure to handle LNG, which, aside from representing a backwards step on the green transition Europe claims to be a leader in, has made it ever more reliant on the United States. But now it has a hostile president to contend with.
Trump claims he wants a swift end to the war. He has threatened to stem the flow of American aid to Ukraine, while bombastically insisting that Europe pick up the slack. Europe’s defense has long been reliant on the United States, but, with Trump in the Oval Office, there is a realization of how precarious U.S. support, and the integrity of NATO, really is. But how the already cash-strapped bloc manages to increase military spending, particularly in the face of internal, nationalist pressure, is unclear.
Perhaps the climate denier Trump can help? With his promise to drill, baby, drill, America’s fossil fuel sector is likely to expand, which, obviously, is an abomination on ecological grounds. But European leaders, for all they claim to be green, will be hoping this expansion will drive down energy prices, though that is by no means a certain outcome.
But, even if energy prices ease up a bit for Europe, Trump’s threat to slap tariffs on friends and foes alike could undermine any savings gained. The United States is the E.U.’s largest trade partner, so, clearly, tariffs could severely affect Europe by making its products less competitive in U.S. markets, while the uncertainty created by the mere prospect of tariffs is already proving disruptive. Even if Trump doesn’t impose high tariffs on European goods, he is likely to place them on imports from China, which, indirectly, could damage Europe. If China is cut off from its American market, it may redirect goods to Europe, lowering prices within the bloc and damaging its own domestic businesses. The bloc is at the mercy of two more powerful superpowers.
Trump clearly seems to get a kick out of threatening tariffs, and he has specifically floated the idea of imposing them on Denmark, should it not willingly cede Greenland to the United States. On the face of it, this seems like the rambles of a madman, but, as ever with Trump, it is difficult to discern how serious his incoherence is. Greenland is rich in oil, gas and rare earth minerals, plus it occupies a profoundly important position on the planet. As the Arctic ice caps melt — which Trump’s environmental policies will ensure happens even faster — new shipping routes are opening up, raising the prospect of a profound shake-up of global trade. The United States, Russia and China are all gearing up for this fast-approaching future.
The U.S., though, already wields great power over Greenland, so it doesn’t necessarily need to annex the island. It already operates a significant military base there, and, should it wish to expand its military presence on the island, is Denmark, a fellow NATO member, likely to resist, particularly in light of its fear of Russia? Even if Greenland was to gain independence — and there is a domestic movement pushing for that — the new state would likely be even more vulnerable to U.S. influence.
No matter what is to come, Trump’s return to power has highlighted the precarity of Europe’s place in the world. The E.U. has allowed itself, over the course of many decades, to become totally subservient to U.S. interests, with the situation as bad now as it ever has been. Nationalism is consequently marching through the continent, and, with Trump’s return, it stands to grow ever bolder. The European project is under threat, and it is only through disentangling itself from the whims of Washington that it might emerge intact. But can the traditional European elite do that, thereby implicitly acknowledging their profound irresponsibility of these past years? It remains to be seen.
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