Another Balls-Up for Europe’s Beige Centrists

What followed in the immediate aftermath, we may never know. Sweaty and vigorous handshakes; promises made and deals cut; grubby seductions and favors called in—whatever, exactly, it is that parliamentarians get up to when they need to coax each other on side. In any case, it worked. A second round of voting was hastily arranged as the day wore on, and this time, Merz actually managed to scrape into power with a healthy count of 325 votes, and he is now the chancellor. But, though he now grasps power, he does so from a position of extraordinary weakness. He has been humiliated: a lame duck before he even got started.

Germany’s post-war political scene was once lauded for its beige, technocratic stability, but those days, whether the technocrats fully realize it or not, are gone. The last government coalition, led by Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats (SPD), collapsed about six months ago, and, clearly, the continuity that Merz represents is already in trouble. People are tired of the centrist consensus in Germany, and change is afoot. It’s just depressing that, owing to the left’s weakness, it is the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party that seems most likely to deliver that change.

The AfD won about a fifth of the vote in the last election, but it was denied the opportunity to enter government by a so-called “firewall” in German politics—that is, a commitment by the other parties to never ally with the far right. The firewall did its job, and Merz, rather than inviting the AfD to join his government, instead cobbled together a coalition with the SPD, which had done fairly terribly in the election. This CDU-SPU coalition has ruled Germany several times before under Angela Merkel, but, given all that’s happened to the country since then, it can hardly be said to enjoy a fine legacy. Resuscitating its corpse doesn’t especially represent a positive move in the right direction for Germany.

A new CDU-SPU coalition always looked destined for instability, and, with someone like Merz leading it, the possibility of it ever gaining popular support seems profoundly unlikely. The man is a neoliberal millionaire who once worked for Blackrock and quite nakedly represents the interests of the wealthy. His foreign policy stances are hawkish and concerning, and he is more than happy to borrow heavily only if it means remilitarizing Germany. The country’s establishment is fiercely against borrowing for the sake of, say, investment in public services, but, when it comes to acquiring guns and war-toys, such a move is deemed by these people to be perfectly reasonable.

Merz and his coalition, in other words, are the embodiment of a centrist and increasingly wayward politics that a growing number of Germans despise. There are some dark days ahead for Germany and Europe, and there is absolutely no reason to think this new government will be able to handle them. The coalition essentially failed to function before it was even officially constituted, which doesn’t exactly suggest it is going to be a healthy force in power. Its collapse seems extremely likely, and, when it comes, Germany will probably descend into far-right rule once again. The AfD is gleeful about what happened today, and why wouldn’t it be? With each passing day, and with every fresh fuck-up by this hollow center, it is edging closer to taking over.