A Reasoned Overreaction to the First Week of the NFL Season

By Jacob Weindling | September 12, 2025 | 4:31pm

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

Sports NFL

A Reasoned Overreaction to the First Week of the NFL Season

As a self-professed brain damaged football fan, I figured I would spend Friday afternoon not covering the horrors of the world and instead, lean into the brain damage and fire off some hot takes and predictions based on one week of watching the NFL. We’ll go in order of the games I saw them in last week, as this isn’t like your father’s ESPN First Take where people bring in prep to pretend they have some evidence for their takes. I’ve got the Week 1 scores page up, my brain damage, and my fingers–that’s all the takesphere needs. Let’s do it.

Dallas Cowboys

Why do we have to keep taking this Cleveland Browns-ass team seriously? Jason Tabrys wrote a great article for Splinter this week about the propaganda that Jeruh recently put out, and the fact that this zoo for professional athletes masquerading as a football team is one lucky Jets season away from owning the NFL’s longest playoff drought should bring shame to this shameless old man. Instead, he’s trading generational superstars and boasting about it, what a psychopath. The Cowboys would have been better off if Donald Trump had bought them for $50 million when he had the chance. The LOLboys, as they are known in my group chat with a Cowboys and Eagles fan, are guaranteed to pick in the top 10 this year. I don’t care how underrated people tell me Dak is. This team sucks as a matter of principle.

Philadelphia Eagles

The only reason the Birds lost their game-wrecker on the inside and allowed Dallas to run and keep the NFL’s opening game close was because Dak spit at Jalen Carter first. The defending champs look every bit the part of it, and while my DraftKings account does not think they will win this weekend in their Super Bowl rematch at Arrowhead, I don’t see anyone in the NFC on their level. These guys are still juggernauts and will be playing in Santa Clara come February.

Kansas City Chiefs

Full disclosure: I was drunk and celebrating a golf victory and saw literally zero of this game, but the Chiefs lost which means they are trash and they suck and people who root for them should feel a deep sense of personal shame. America is starting to learn what I and everyone else along the Rocky Mountains knows: these guys are pure evil. They won’t win another game the rest of the year, except for the fact that the NFL is going to rig another sixteen one-score games in their favor where they shoot my team’s offensive linemen in the legs so they can let the Chiefs through to block a game-winning chip shot field goal that lives on in my nightmares. I know what one of the best days of 2026 in Denver is going to be, and it is when these schlubs lose in Buffalo in January the week after my schlubs do it.

Los Angeles Chargers

Good job fellas. That said, Justin Herbert, despite all his talents, is still closer to Alex Smith than Patrick Mahomes. He is a mid-quarterback for a mid-team, enjoy your first-round playoff exit you roaming existential crisis of an NFL squad.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No one has ever benefited more from the bleak reality that someone has to win the NFC South every year than the Bucs. The loser creamsicle team is the standard of excellence in the NFL’s worst division, and the Bucs will again be gifted another home playoff game by virtue of getting to play four games against the alleged NFL teams in Carolina and New Orleans. If the NFL ever changes the rules over home playoff games in the first round, the NFC South will be why.

Atlanta Falcons

I don’t want to hear about fun skill players and new quarterbacks and such. I know a curse when I see one. I saw 28-3 with my own eyes. I lived in Atlanta. Beautiful people. I love the city. Wonderful place. Horribly cursed. Congratulations on your 9 wins and possible NFC seven seed where every win will feel like pulling fingernails.

Cincinnati Bengals

The rizz king needed a missed extra point from a cursed city to start out 1-0, and the Bengals have had some Bungles rumblings in the background as of late. Someone good always has to surprisingly suck every year in the NFL, and they are perhaps this year’s prime candidate. Do not be surprised if you look up in December at the four-win rizz king as Jim Nantz solemnly talks about all the injuries Joe Burrow’s offensive line endured while he’s down 31-14 at home against Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns

This team is so cursed I’m not spending any more time in this section than I have to. You missed an extra point to lose to your rivals in Week 1, how do you think this season is gonna go Browns fans?

Miami Dolphins

Ok here’s a real hot take: these schmucks are gonna draft first overall. They play in a division where everyone got better, and the Dolphins are set up to have everything fall apart. Tyreek Hill, famous for punching the pregnant mother of his child, just had more domestic violence allegations made against him, and he was already caught by cameras soiling his diaper in front of a coordinator on the sidelines in Week 1. Whatever the over/under is for games played by Hill this year I’m betting the under. This team has “everything goes wrong, and Mike McDaniel is cruising on a coke yacht on Sundays in November” written all over it. Zach Wilson will take more snaps under center for this budding raging tire fire than Tua will.

Indianapolis Colts

Don’t let stomping a team begging to collapse fool you, this team still employs Daniel Jones at quarterback. Sure, the Colts may be solid everywhere else across their depth chart, but when your hopes and dreams are pinned on the pride of Duke football, I’m not sure it’s going to go anywhere. These guys play my team this weekend so I’m fearful of talking too much and triggering any potential jinx, but I’ll just say that the Colts are the Midwest Chargers, and I know a mid team when I see one.

Las Vegas Raiders

Speaking of mid teams, that seems to be what Mark Davis and company are shooting for in Mile High Stadium West. Pete Carroll is…fine. Geno Smith is…fine. With some progression by rookies from last year, their offensive line in front of Ashton Jeanty could be…fine. The 2025 Raiders were constructed in a lab to win 8 games, and they will likely do the classic Raiders thing of having some shockers like a 31-17 win at Kansas City while getting blown out at home against the Jaguars amidst deafening “Duuuuuuval” chants.

New England Patriots

After John Elway retired, us Broncos fans had to endure the tyranny of Brian Griese and the litany of crappy quarterbacks who came after him. The search for a guy in Denver after Peyton Manning has taken so long that we now think Bo Nix is a superstar. What I am saying is that the New England Patriots are paying for their sins from the Brady era, and they are condemned to a life of Mac Jones impersonators and top 10 draft picks until they truly learn why the rest of America came to hate them so much this century.

Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of teams that don’t know how to pick a lane, a franchise with a rich history older than the vast majority of the NFL that treats itself like an expansion team every year is doing it once again. Is Kyler Murray finally going to get better at football than Call of Duty? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. make good on a fraction of the hype on him coming out of college? Does anyone in any decade ever play defense on this team? We know nothing because of who they played in week one, but these are the Cardinals, we know everything we need to know about them already. They’ll be far down on the “in the hunt” playoff chase in Week 14 and disappear from the graphic by Week 17 like always.

New Orleans Saints

You’re starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback in Week 1, just find something else to do on Sundays this year Saints fans. This team is why my “the Dolphins will get the #1 overall pick” hot take is going to be wrong. This roster is offensive to any kind of football decency, and the Saints ineptitude will undoubtedly be the best part of Falcons fans’ seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers

This might get really unbearable, folks. An aging legend on one last ride on a team that is an aging legend itself desperately searching for a way to reclaim its past glory? This is America’s team in 2025. We live in a world where the bad guys have won, and I fear that Rodgers’ four touchdown performance against his previous employer was a harbinger of things to come. We might be looking at one of the most insufferable seasons in ages, with Rodgers pulling some magic out of his hat week in and week out to drag a good Pittsburgh roster to a surprise division victory. But don’t worry fellow haters, we will get our revenge when Baltimore easily covers a 7.5 road spread in the wild card round in Pittsburgh and Pat Mcaffee has to find a new guest the following week.

New York Jets

This is the most cursed team of all. The only NFL squad that could make Aaron Rodgers look sympathetic. They looked surprisingly good in Week 1 and Justin Fields had some eye-opening moments, but that quarterback on that team just feels cosmically cursed in a way where reason does not apply, and it would take an act of God to keep the Jets out of the top 10 again this upcoming April.

New York Giants

Poor Russell Wilson was running for his life in Week 1 the moment the snap hit his fingertips, and it will not get any better under rookie Jaxon Dart whenever he inevitably takes over. The Giants are a heaping pile of trash that unlike its Jersey neighbor, at least knows it’s a heaping pile of trash, and Brian Daboll’s desperation to keep his job will probably luck them into some unexpected wins this year. That said, the football gods have clearly deemed that barring extreme circumstances, both “New York” teams will forever pick in the top 10 for the affront to geography their existence represents.

Washington Commanders

I’m cheating since I got to see them play two games, and last night I think we saw the Commies’ ceiling after they made the Giants look like a hapless Big 12 team in Week 1. Jayden Daniels is absolutely That Dude and this is not a team anyone wants to mess with, but the Packer defense was really good before Jeruh handed them the greatest pass rusher alive, and Washington looks like a classic good but not great team. I see a future for fans in our nation’s capital where they’re watching shots of Jayden Daniels slinking down on a bench in January, while the announcers are asking what the Commanders need to do to get to Philadelphia’s level next year.

Carolina Panthers

Ick. Gross. Top 3 pick. Guaranteed. Let’s move on before any of us get this franchise’s stench on us.

Jacksonville Jaguars

On paper, this could be a frisky team, but that’s been the perpetual motto since Jacksonville drafted future bust Trevor Lawrence. He is not that bad, but he is not that good, and Lawrence very much wins the Kyle Orton memorial award for being the 16th best quarterback in a 32-quarterback league. The Jaguars are theoretically good enough to win a bad AFC South, but they are nowhere close to the AFC’s trio of top contenders and would get blasted into the ionosphere should they encounter one of them in the playoffs. Please be careful with Travis Hunter, folks, I really don’t think playing him two ways in the NFL is a good idea, especially on this team.

San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shannahan’s devil magic was still working in Week 1, but the 49ers didn’t exactly look like the team that stood atop the NFC to meet Patrick Mahomes face-to-face in the Super Bowl. Beneath the team I’ll get to in a bit, the NFC West looks like a mid-off this year, and it’s anyone’s guess as to the names around it, but I will bet my bottom dollar that 2nd through 4th in the division all finish with anywhere between 6 and 10 wins. San Francisco will be right in the middle of that mess.

Seattle Seahawks

This team swapped out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and DK Metcalf for Cooper Kupp in one of the most aggressive lateral moves in decades. This team cannot win less than six games, but it also can’t win more than ten. They are locked into the 2nd through 4th mid-off in the NFC West and will play one-score games against most of their opponents this year, as the Seahawks look to embody the inherent parody within the NFL more than anyone.

Detroit Lions

The Lions looked like a team that lost two key offensive linemen on the league’s premiere ass-kicking line. The question now is can they do what the Eagles have done and figure out how to replace them. It will take time, but this team is too talented and still filled with too many big brains to not figure out how to utilize the best running back duo in the league to make their offense hum. They won’t win the NFC North, but they’ll be in contention for the top wild card team ready to kick the overmatched NFC South winner’s ass on the road in the wild card round.

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is a dude, man. Tucker Kraft is a good tight end. Losing Jayden Reed for several weeks is tough, but Matthew Golden was for my money, the best wide receiver in college last year, and for the first time since the days of Jordy Nelson, I think you can say the Packers have some dangerous pass-catchers. Add in the team’s incentive of wanting to level up along with a young developing quarterback, and it just seems like this is the Packers’ year to run roughshod over the league in the regular season. The Eagles will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the NFC playoffs are going to go through Green Bay.

Houston Texans

I think C.J. Stroud is also a dude, which means I am now forced to take the Rams’ defense more seriously after holding him to 9 points in Week 1. You never want to overreact too much to Week 1, but that’s the point of what we’re doing here, and I came away watching that game thinking the Rams are good more than the Texans are bad. Houston should still win their embarrassing division, but they may do it with an shameful number where they have to win a final week tiebreaker against the Jaguars or something.

Los Angeles Rams

Matt Stafford is a warrior man. I cannot begin to describe the respect I have for him as a football player, and it colors my view of this team. Football is about having a guy at quarterback who can win games when winning time comes, and Stafford did that yet again on Sunday. I wouldn’t want to face this team in a tight playoff game with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams snagging everything Stafford slings their way, even though they feel like they max out at the third-best team in the NFC in what could be Stafford’s last year.

Denver Broncos

Fuck, don’t make me do this. Bo Nix looked horrible against the team that picked first overall last year. He almost made me think my hot take slamming him and Sean Payton last year wasn’t too early, and my subsequent recanting of that blog was my real mistake last year. I can’t remember the last time I felt that awful about a win. The good news is that the Denver defense is overflowing with a bunch of demons who teleport wherever they please and Nix may never need to score more than three touchdowns to win. I look forward to losing by 30 in Buffalo in January again, and being a little grumpier about it than I was last year.

Tennessee Titans

Woof. Jeffrey Simmons is a wrecking ball and Cam Ward looked remarkably composed for a rookie making his NFL debut against a pack of wild hyenas, but other than that, there wasn’t much good to take from this game for Titans fans. Unless Calvin Ridley is still joining the legion of athletes betting on their own unders, his time as an impact receiver in the NFL looks to be stuck in stasis in Atlanta. A lot of Titans games will probably look like Sunday, with Ward and a competent run game keeping Tennessee uncomfortably close to a lot of teams, but ultimately losing because Ward is running for his life and his receivers couldn’t catch a cold at RFK Jr.’s HHS. Top 5 pick guaranteed for these guys, and it’ll almost certainly be a pass catcher or a pass blocker.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler is still the best quarterback in Bears history. That’s my Caleb Williams take. The Bears are another cursed squad that my team is far too integrated with for me to linger around and tempt fate. Ben Johnson’s Bears will be more fun than Matt Eberflus’ Bears, but I’m not sure they’re going to win many more games than they did.

Minnesota Vikings

Kevin O’Connell is the most under-appreciated coach in the NFL is now one of those sentences like “Ben Wallace is an underrated basketball player” where the phrase itself is overrated. O’Connell proved it yet again on Monday Night, finding a way to get his offense out of the mud with yet another random white Midwest quarterback plucked from central casting. The Vikings are the most underrated team in the NFL, with a staff and system that wins them more games than their talent level should, inevitably leading them to be the NFL’s most overrated squad. This year looks no different, and while a tough NFC North will depress their win total, spiritually this is an 11-win team that looks like a 7-win team.

Baltimore Ravens

I flip flopped the last two games because who wants to end a column on the Minnesota Vikings? I have more self-respect than that. I also have more self-respect than to end it on a team that lives forever in my Mile High Miracle nightmares who evokes their purple-clad bretheren in never being able to win the big one. I hate sports platitudes like that, but this team has blown enough important games, I just assume that’s where this season is headed. The shocking blown loss Baltimore suffered in Week 1 is the kind that comes back to haunt you–the kind that sends you to a rematch in the AFC Championship in Buffalo instead of Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills

They’re gonna do it, folks. I know it’s pretty rich to spend a whole column talking about jinxes then say the fucking Buffalo Bills are going to win the Super Bowl, but I don’t think it’s going to happen–I feel it. I am practicing what I learned in Sedona and am producing a take from my gut, not my head. Every so often when I watch Josh Allen play, and he reminds me of John Elway, I think to myself “screw Taylor Swift’s bridesmaid, this is the best quarterback in the NFL.” Allen’s size, speed and power is nothing like the NFL has seen since the days of Cam Newton, which was nothing like the NFL has seen since Elway. This unique build for a quarterback only comes along every so often, and it really pains this writer raised on John Elway to say that I think Allen might be utilizing this skillset the best of the three. He’s a killer, and he’s endured enough heartbreak that I feel he gets his moment this year, and he capitalizes on it. Bills over Birds in Santa Clara in November, that’s my reasoned overreaction from Week 1 of the NFL season. Enjoy the football this weekend, folks.