The Numerous Threats Facing the 2026 Elections

By Thor Benson  |  September 10, 2025 | 10:12am
Photo by The White House
Elections 2026 Elections
The Numerous Threats Facing the 2026 Elections

As Trump continues his efforts to push the country toward authoritarianism, many are wondering if we’ll continue to have free and fair elections going forward. Trump is no stranger to challenging elections, even willing to incite violence, and he regularly casts doubt on the integrity of our election systems. Everything’s a conspiracy against him, according to Trump.

The 2026 midterm elections are just over a year away, so the country will be contending with these questions before we know it. There will be some voter suppression. There’s a big redistricting standoff happening. Trump might conceivably find a way to successfully end mail-in voting in certain states, as he wants to. He could use the military to intimate voters and lower voter turnout. A lot appears to be in flux.

Archon Fung, a professor of citizenship and self-government at Harvard University, told Splinter that he has several concerns when it comes to the 2026 midterm elections. “If it’s an ordinary midterm election, the incumbent party should lose ground. That’s what happens in most midterms,” Fung said. “It’s plausible to me that there could be election malfeasance and election doubt in 2026.”

Fung said that mail-in voting is a state-level decision, so Trump would likely have to convince states to change their voting procedures to get what he wants there. In terms of redistricting, Fung is on the National Governing Board at the pro-democracy organization Common Cause, and he says they support independent redistricting commissions, but they’re aware that there’s a kind of emergency situation happening right now. 

“If one side, whether it’s the Democrats or the Republicans, decides to gerrymander to try to dominate the House of Representatives or get to a particular outcome, we’re not going to condemn somebody else who counter-gerrymanders,” Fung said. “That would be like saying you don’t have the right to self-defense.”

In terms of the possible use of the military to suppress the vote, Fung said we simply don’t have any experience with that happening, so it’s hard to imagine how that might play out. He said that would certainly go against democracy. 

“There’s the National Guard presence in D.C., right?” Fung said. “According to a couple of stories that looked at Open Table restaurant reservations, reservations went down by 30 percent, so does voting go down by 30 percent? I don’t know.” 

Fung is worried about all of these things, but he said what he’s really focused on right now is people’s trust in elections. If Democrats take the House but a large percentage of the country thinks the election was rigged for one reason or another, that’s a serious problem for democracy. 

“There’s the recent Trump statement about campaigning against vote by mail and disallowing vote by mail, and in that he was casting doubt about voting machines,” Fung said. “Like you say, the deployment of the National Guard and other federal authorities. All of these things, I think, create instability and doubt in election integrity.”

It’s impossible to say this early if the 2026 midterms elections will be “free and fair.” Trump is already trying to influence the election and will certainly continue to do so. How effective he will be remains to be seen. Unfortunately, even if his efforts fail and the likely outcome happens, and the Democrats take the House, the chaos around the election will likely cause many to question the results.

 
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