Democrats Have Played This Government Shutdown Fairly Well—So Far

“The healthcare issues” said the Speaker of the House about the bill he and the rest of the Republican Party tried and failed to brand as big and beautiful. This statement more than any proves how successful Democrats have been in pushing the narrative so far. Even the GOP admits now that the heinous murder bill they passed earlier this year that is wildly unpopular per every poll on it needs some adjustments. While I think Democrats’ offer to save Republicans from a devastating election year talking point that clearly shakes MTG to her core is a bad political move, centering health care in their demands has not been one so far. I criticized them for making functionally the same argument—the Republicans are coming to take your healthcare—for the 15th year in a row or so, but so far this iteration of a tired attack line has the GOP flummoxed.

Fascinating moment in the power of DC Think. Democrats are clearly *not* looking for an off ramp right now. They’re actually saying this. Which is a measure of how badly it’s going for the GOP. It’s the GOP that is actually looking for the offeamp.

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— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) October 9, 2025 at 11:11 AM

I doubt its long-term salience just based on past GOP shutdowns not moving the needle much or at all for Democrats in the subsequent elections, but so far, the Republican Party clearly does not know how to counter this factual attack that they are taking away people’s healthcare and raising their premiums. They’re doing their own tired shtick of lying about what Democrats are doing in a government that Republicans have unilateral control over, and the public is not buying it.

As data scientist G. Elliott Morris noted, “polls unanimously find voters are blaming Republicans more than Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown.” Republicans are alone on their propaganda island in believing the minority party is to blame. Mike Johnson, Donald Trump and the rest of the intransigent GOP are finding themselves more and more isolated against a growing side populated by the Democratic Party, Independents and Marjorie Taylor Greene who all think that it’s fairly pathetic that a party who appointed a King are claiming their hands are tied by a group of people with literally zero power to do anything without Republican votes. The very concept of personal responsibility abandoned this caucus long before they abandoned that talking point just as they anointed the diametric opposite of it as their new King.

The story of this shutdown is that Republicans are lying about the power they have already proven they wield, the Democrats are not budging from their straightforward demand that their priority be included in any continuing resolution they sign off on, or else the majority party can figure out how to reopen the government on their own, and the public is siding with Democrats. Retreating to their safe space of health care attacks has been a proven political success, as they have a great point that could turn into an electorally devastating “I told you so” next year, demanding that Republicans extend Affordable Care Act tax credits that if they expire, will double millions of people’s healthcare premiums next year according to independent health policy outlet KFF.

“I’m not putting the blame on the president,” said MTG to CNN today. “I’m actually putting the blame on the Speaker and Leader Thune in the Senate. This should not be happening…we control the House and Senate and have the White House.” Greene’s very public defection is representative of a growing group of GOPers who aren’t crazy enough to split from the cult so publicly, but are nervous about Republican policy ruining their reelection fortunes in a world where Democrats are picking off GOPers in deep red districts left and right. Reps like Greene see the logic in the deal the Democrats have given them, and they are pushing Johnson to take it. Even though this proves that the Democrats are making a poor political offer so clear that MTG can see it, it still has the added benefit of splitting the Republican caucus still too stupid to take a deal that benefits them more than Democrats.

This is a pretty extraordinary fight that has revealed how MTG may be a more rational actor than Speaker Johnson. The former is worried about reality like polls showing that Trump and the GOP are receiving the blame for the shutdown right now, while the latter is trafficking in the unreality of Republican politics where their mad King gets to dictate the physical constraints of their universe. In that world, the Democrats, a party with no power, is supposedly to blame for shutting down the most powerful government ever controlled by a man who has functionally eliminated Article I of the Constitution with the aid of the Supreme Court. It is all so farcical.

MTG is right. The Democrats pursued a tired strategy that’s actually working. Up is down. Black is white. We live in unprecedented times where the unthinkable happens. We shall see where this goes, and no one should ever think the Democrats are incapable of playing a good hand poorly, but so far, with the aid of the GOP not taking their offer to save them from themselves, Democrats are playing a good government shutdown hand pretty well.