Tesla Is So Cooked

– Tesla Stock Drops as Musk’s SEC Battle Takes New Twist.

– Family sues Tesla after Cybertruck owner dies in 5,000-degree inferno, causing bones to disintegrate

– Tesla sales in Europe slump 40% as BYD new car registrations more than triple

Here is the best headline I could find for Tesla by simply just searching “Tesla,” and it’s not exactly a complimentary story: Tesla announces 50% increase in Austin Robotaxi, but 50% from what?

This company is coooooooooked. Bitcoin is more fairly valued that Tesla stock is. The Cybertruck is such a world-historic disaster both from a safety and profit perspective it makes the Ford Pinto look like a Boeing 747 by comparison. There will be more wooly mammoths on the European continent in 20 years than Teslas. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) company BYD is taking advantage of the globe’s most racist continent’s widespread revulsion to one of mankind’s most racist men. In just a short time competing with a company that knew how to build a quality engine and little else, BYD has overtaken Tesla in Europe. BYD outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time ever in the first quarter, and it now has 1.2 percent market share compared to Tesla’s 0.8 percent.

Given that some Democrats seem to be embracing their love of the free market and want to ban a company making a superior product from our market, it’s uncertain whether BYD will have the same opportunity to cut into Tesla’s first mover advantage here that wanes every day an actual car company pushes a new EV off the assembly line. Tesla became synonymous with electric vehicles America thanks to Musk’s talent of taking billions of dollars in handouts from California and the federal government before anyone else could, and the world that GM and Ford and Mercedes and Honda and all the other real car companies have molded in the past decade is very different from the one where we all thought Elon Musk was smart.

Under an anonymous CEO, Tesla’s market share would likely be down only simply by virtue of more car companies producing more electric vehicles, but the stock being sustained on Elon Musk’s cult of personality has made the brand synonymous with a man who did a Nazi salute at Trump’s inauguration, accelerating the decline. Somewhere, a BMW EV executive must have smiled in that moment, knowing some of the heat was off.

This is not a car company. It’s a meme stock and its own earnings prove how without carbon credits, Tesla would lose money. Everyone who thinks Musk is a genius needs to explain why the current state of Tesla’s business is dependent on other companies making less EVs. If car companies make more EVs, under the current law Trump probably wants to repeal, they will pay less in carbon credits. The core revenue generator for Tesla shrinks every time GM pumps a new EV off the line. What a brilliant mastermind Elon is.

Cooked! Overdone! Finito! If Tesla was a steak I’d send it back and tell them to give it to the shoe store next door. Tesla moon bois may tell me I’m just another hater as they flash their unrealized gains at me, but this meme stock has fallen 60 percent before and it will fall 60 percent again. Volatility works in both directions, and if you can’t understand that, you’re not even a good moonboi.

This ride will end one day. It will end before Bitcoin does. Shorting a cult is always a bad idea, as my annual P&L statement currently proves. I was looking pretty smart after Liberation Day, but as I detailed this week, the stock market has no principles outside ZIRP and all the uncertainty Trump is pricing into the bond market has not made it to the moonbois and moongirls and moonnonbinaires in the stock market. All of you will learn the harsh lesson of stairs up, elevators down one day. The nut to crack to being a good investor is figuring out when that day will actually happen, because the market has long proven it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

This company doesn’t make money on its core business! That’s why ketamine bro is out here ranting about supposedly putting Waymo out of commission. His explicit appeal in light of Tesla’s plummeting sales is ‘don’t worry if no one buys our cars, we can just turn all of them into a robotaxi fleet and it doesn’t matter anyway because everyone will buy our robots that don’t exist yet.’ Except as Eletrek detailed above, evoking the goose chasing the guy meme, a 50 percent increase from what!

Tesla is a confidence game centered around Elon Musk. When the world thought he was a quixotic genius, it worked. The free ZIRP money that flew into the market in 2020 blew the stock up to an insane degree, and if you chart Tesla and Bitcoin next to each other, we can add the “they’re the same picture” meme to this blog. The difference between Tesla and Bitcoin is that Wall Street actually is buying Bitcoin, while only the marks are buying Tesla. The marks are buying the stock market this year too, while the smart money has largely been selling. Divergences like that have a way of resolving towards the smart money, and at some point if dumb money has no money left to buy Tesla stock, then there may be nobody left to buy Tesla.