Democrats Are More Excited to Vote than Republicans

We are in the tea leaves phase of the election cycle, where votes are being cast but we will not have the full picture until after election day, and so we are all slowly driving ourselves insane looking for clues as to how next week’s election may go. Depending on which state you look at, early voting in Nevada could be a harbinger of doom for Democrats as Republicans are heavily turning out the vote in rural areas en route to what looks like a victory in the Silver State, or you can look at the gender gap in the six states that track that data which suggest a Democratic blowout is incoming. Or maybe you’re just looking at Georgia and you have good news and bad news for everyone. The central problem with forecasting this election lies in the heavy influence of low propensity voters this year, as Trump is depending on definitionally inconsistent voters to win. Right now, we are in the sweet spot of having enough data to come up with almost any theory you want but not enough data to falsify it.

So let’s add some more data to the pile. Voter enthusiasm is one of the indicators that tea leaves readers turn to, as it is a pretty solid gauge of the expected turnout for each side. The logic is pretty simple: if voters are telling pollsters they are more enthusiastic about this election, they are likely to vote in it. The more voters who are enthusiastic, the more votes are cast. Democrats clearly have the enthusiasm advantage in this election, per the latest polling from Gallup.