More Heat Will Kill Far More People Than Less Cold Will Save: Study

By Dave Levitan | January 27, 2025 | 11:13am

Photo via European Space Agency/Wikimedia Commons

Climate Heat Waves

More Heat Will Kill Far More People Than Less Cold Will Save: Study

Historically, there has been some disagreement as to how deadly the opposite heat extremes are. But even among studies showing fairly hefty imbalance toward more cold-weather deaths than hot, there is evidence that the warming climate is shifting the ratios dramatically. A new study published Monday in Nature Medicine puts a number on that shift, specifically in Europe: by 2099, climate change will add more than 2.3 million temperature-related deaths to the tally, as the increase in heat-related deaths vastly outweigh the drop in cold-related deaths. That’s a jump of almost 50 percent.

“This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,” said Antonio Gasparrini, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the study’s senior author, according to a press release. “These results debunk proposed theories of ‘beneficial’ effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.”

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The researchers modeled future temperature for 854 European cities, along with population and demographic details, to determine future death rates. Though the details vary widely by location, the overall effect is dramatic: with no drastic action on climate change, the excess deaths from heat will dwarf the reduced cold deaths. The most affected cities are around the Mediterranean, where extreme heat will get more and more dangerous; far and away the biggest loser here is Barcelona, which will see more than 246,000 more temperature-related deaths through 2099 thanks to the warming climate.

Other cities high on the list include Rome, Naples, Madrid, Milan, Athens, and Valencia, in terms of the raw numbers. Some smaller places in Italy and Spain will see bigger increases in temperature-related death rates, though the absolute number of increased deaths is smaller. And there are places that will see fewer deaths overall, with the increasing temperatures saving some people from the cold; as you might expect, these are in the north, including London and various Scandinavian cities.

“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,” said lead author Pierre Masselot, also of LSHTM. “This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.”