Can you tell us about Turkey’s progress into the DAANES region?
When the HTS-led forces began their attack targeting the Syrian government on November 27, we saw after a few days, on December 1, the SNA, the Syrian National Army, which is effectively Turkey’s proxy force in Syria, started their own offensive, codenamed Dawn of Freedom.
The first place that fell to the SNA was Shahba, which was a kind of exclave territory controlled by the SDF, but geographically disconnected from the rest of North and East Syria. The SDF basically pulled out and said, we can’t defend this territory, so we will try to get civilians out. Around 100,000 people—basically the entire population of Shahba—fled, and around two thirds of these people were already displaced people from Afrin.
When Turkey invaded Afrin in 2018, a good chunk of Afrin’s residents stayed in Shahba, which is adjacent to Afrin. So, many of the people just displaced from the SNA’s invasion of Shahba had already been displaced before in 2018. This was their second displacement. About 30,000 went to Aleppo, and around 70,000 went to the Autonomous Administration regions of North and East Syria. This was all in the first few days of December.
Why did all the people leave? Because the SNA, this Turkish proxy force, are known for their criminal and abusive behavior in the areas they control, marked by crimes against civilians, particularly targeting Kurdish populations, and also Yazidi and Christian minorities. So when they came to Shahba, basically the whole population left.
About a week and a bit later, the SNA turned to Manbij, also SDF-controlled. In Manbij, the SDF, it seems, did not defend it so conventionally. They chose more to rely on the tunnel system they had built over the years underneath Manbij and the surrounding areas. Because Turkey was backing up this ground offensive with air strikes—drone strikes and warplane strikes—it was difficult for the SDF to fight above ground. So they were basically letting the SNA come in and trying to ambush them in various attacks. But, in the end, the SDF also had to pull out of Manbij and Manbij was taken by the SNA.
Now the fighting has basically moved to two points along the Euphrates River, which separates the Kobani countryside from the Manbij countryside. This is where the fighting is now centered, with the SNA seeking to advance across the river into Kobani and the SDF seeking to stop this. You have, every day, fighting in the eastern Manbij countryside. Turkey is every day conducting drone strikes and warplane strikes, not just in the areas of the active fighting, but also in the whole Kobani countryside and also more broadly in North and East Syria.
The civilian casualty toll from these Turkish strikes has been quite significant. The front line has not really moved in some weeks now. It’s just every day these clashes, with the SNA trying to cross the river. If they can breach any of these two crossing points, Kobani is open for them.
Can you tell us about the attacks on water and energy infrastructure?
The way Turkey has attacked the North and East Syria region in recent years, water has been a massive part of it. The water levels in the Euphrates river have been falling, especially after January 2021. There was this dramatic drop in the flow entering the Euphrates, both for drinking water, agriculture, and water to power the hydroelectric dams that give energy to a lot of areas of northeast Syria. It was really impactful. The officials in the Administration have accused Turkey of deliberately limiting the water flow into North and East Syria. Turkey denies this. The facts are that there’s a lot of dam building in Turkey that allows Turkey to effectively control the water flow into here.
The last two years have seen Turkey conduct air strike campaigns, targeting electricity, oil, gas infrastructure. The oil facilities in North and East Syria have been extremely damaged, but they have been, to some extent, repaired, and they’re still functioning. The U.S. is very keen these do not fall into the hands of ISIS or other extremist Islamist groups.
What does Turkey hope to achieve in North and East Syria?
When the civil war in Syria began, millions of refugees were going to Turkey, and Turkey faced domestic backlash for this. A big thing in Turkish policy is moving Syrian refugees back into Syria and stopping more coming in. But also Turkey has an issue with there being any kind of political Kurdish project on its border.
The Autonomous Administration is not just a Kurdish project. The North and East Syria region actually has more Arabs than Kurds living in it. But you can say the origins of this project came from the Kurdish political movement. Turkey definitely sees it as a project linked to Kurdish politics, which it’s heavily suppressing within Turkey.
Turkey does not accept the existence of the Autonomous Administration on its border and wants to crush this. So it’s these two aims in parallel, both of which are connected to Turkey’s domestic politics.
Has the United States, an ally of the SDF, intervened in Turkey’s attacks?
They’ve made some statements, calling for calm in Syria—the cessation of hostilities and stuff. Actually, the Rojava Information Center did an interview with the YPJ [the Women’s Protection Units, an all-female militia within the SDF] commander-in-chief the other day, and she was saying the U.S. in its diplomatic stances, is trying to stop Turkey, because Turkey is openly threatening to invade Kobani itself, from Turkey’s side. But America has not really materially helped, and they don’t expect material help either.
What might we expect from Trump?
It’s obviously a big wild card. We saw in 2018 and 2019, when he pulled American troops out. It was meant to be a complete withdrawal from Syria, but then it was half-aborted in the end and some troops were kept in Syria. It’s hard to know what Trump will do, but it seems like the American forces who are based in the region are quite keen on America staying to fight ISIS, especially right now with the threat of a resurgence. ISIS could exploit security gaps in Syria right now.
How is DAANES’ relationship with HTS progressing?
It seems like their communication, in the beginning, was on this basis of not accidentally falling into conflict with one another. The Autonomous Administration here has made statements saying we want to talk, we are open for dialogue, we are open for negotiations to figure out a future settlement for Syria. As far as I understand, some meetings have been made so far. The SDF confirmed a delegation went to Damascus to meet with the HTS delegation. But no side published a statement. It was not clear what came of this meeting, but it was said this was the starter meeting. There will be more.
It seems there will be a kind of national dialogue conference—some big conference in the future, where they will try to bring together different sides. But it’s unclear who will be included in this, how it will actually run. This is all just talk so far.
HTS is saying the SDF—and not just the SDF, but all forces in Syria, all armed militias—must integrate into a national army. The SDF also was saying, we are willing to be part of a national army. They’ve said this in quite a few statements.
How trustworthy is HTS’s stated commitment to dialogue with DAANES?
The eyes of the world are on Syria right now. HTS is very aware that if it’s employing language that is divisive, that is exclusionary, that seems like it’s just seizing power for HTS, it will not get favorable media coverage. It will create diplomatic difficulties. So [HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s] talk right now is very open, very welcoming, very inclusive.
What does this mean in practice? There’s some practical things that, you look at them and you think, how could it work? For example, in the SDF, you have the YPJ, the all-women’s force. How could this all-female force be integrated into a national army? Is it possible? From statements made so far by various figures in the new HTS-led administration, it seems that the role for women is not going to be as it is in North and East Syria. So, how could the YPJ be part of this national army? HTS is saying one thing, but how could this actually work in practice, given they are saying other statements about what kind of role women might have in this society?
Are the SDF-operated prison camps, which house ISIS members and their families, close to the zones of conflict? Is there a possibility of jailbreaks?
Geographically, they’re not so close to the front lines. You have Al-Hol camp and Al-Roj camp. Al-Hol camp has around 50,000 people. There are Syrians, Iraqis, and then there are these foreigners. The foreigners are mostly women and children: people who came here to be part of the [Islamic State] caliphate and then had children. Al-Roj camp has around 2,500 people. Again, that’s mostly foreigners. Very few Syrians and Iraqis there.
It’s the foreigners in the camps that really present the threat, as they are more ideologically committed to ISIS. They came here to join the caliphate. They’re still inside the camps, attempting to organize, to uphold some kind of ISIS rule within the camp.
ISIS sleeper cells still in North and East Syria have long had the camps as an aim to attack, to break out their people. This is always an issue, but when Turkey ups its attacks on North and East Syria, the SDF, already spread thin, has to think about how to divide resources. It has to divert resources to the areas under attack and the camps are left more vulnerable.
There are about 10,000 ISIS fighters still held in prisons across North and East Syria, about 2,000 of whom are foreign. In 2023, the Autonomous Administration said, we want a trial for these foreign fighters, because they have been doing trials for the Syrian fighters. They were asking for their countries to repatriate them. Repatriation has taken place both of male fighters and of women and children, but very slowly.
The aim is to repatriate the foreign fighters. But because this hasn’t happened yet, the Administration has said, okay, we will try to make our own trial. We will call for international participation to try these foreign fighters. But they had no positive response from the international community—even a negative response—and basically were unable to do it. So the issue still remains.
Administration officials, also American officials, are describing these camps as ticking time bombs. There could be an attack and a breakout that could be catastrophic at any point.
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