How Does the World Respond to Syria Now?

But HTS’s overtures are just that right now – signals, but not commitments to a pluralism, and its current track record is not exactly reassuring. But HTS also wants international legitimacy and recognition, and the terrorism designation does offer leverage to influence the new Syrian government to fulfill some of the promises. 

“The international community should have a clear position on how to engage, what to use that leverage for, and how to ensure that what’s happening in Syria is not led by HTS, but is done in a way that represents the ambitions and demands of the Syrian people collectively,” said Haid Haid, an expert on HTS and a consulting fellow with Chatham House. 

Few think this will be a straightforward or immediately successful process. HTS is the key rebel group right now, but it is far from the only one in Syria. Other armed groups have interests and regional centers of power. Rebel fighters and opposition forces from the Druze minority in Syria’s south joined the fight to defeat Assad, and were among the first to reach Damascus. Then there are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish group that partnered with the U.S. to help defeat ISIS and governs the autonomous northeast of the country. The SDF has said it has a deal with the HTS, and will send a delegation to Damascus. Kurdish forces also raised Syria’s revolutionary flag, used by the opposition forces since 2011, in a gesture of solidarity. But the SDF is also under pressure from other militias, including the Syrian National Army; Turkey is backing that ragtag opposition coalition in order to undermine the SDF’s influence in northeastern Syria. Those two groups have engaged in serious clashes, though they just reached a ceasefire in Manbij, a site of heavy fighting in the days after Assad’s fall. 

These tensions will not disappear, and all of these parties will seek influence or a stake in any Syrian future. The test for HTS will be whether now, closer to power than ever, it will willingly find ways to share it around, or if it will seek to further consolidate control. “It’s easier to send all of the right signals amidst the euphoria of liberation and freedom. It will be a lot harder to keep those signals going once HTS starts to be challenged by minority groups and be issued demands by minority groups,” Lister said. 

Lister added that engagement, rather than isolation, was probably the best strategy here. But again, this is a precarious balancing act. 

Syria is not a neat narrative. A tangle of rebel groups, of varied political and religious extremes, finally ousted Assad, rather than some ideal version of a pro-democratic resistance. But all of those parties, HTS included, should get a chance to evolve and work out the transition for Syria. So should the civil society leaders, activists, and civilians in Syria and abroad who have been envisioning a democratic future for Syria for years. That process will potentially be messy and ugly and veer from the Western playbook of perfect political process – which actually has a pretty terrible track record anyway. The U.S. and the international community can and should condition things like sanctions relief on seeing real moves toward protections for minorities or commitments to human rights and rule of law. But it also should keep back channels open for engagement, and consider ways to give the transition some cushion to figure it out, including by ensuring unfettered access to humanitarian aid.

The U.S. and its partners will also have limited influence in the outcome in Syria. In the past decade, other regional and other international players have vied for power and influence in Syria – often to the detriment of the Syrian people. But they are not just going to dip out of Syria quietly. 

Turkey looms large, and it is actively exerting its influence through its close alignment with rebel groups in Syria, including HTS and the Syrian National Army, largely as a counter to Kurdish influence and power in Syria. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a stake in a stable Syria, one that will allow the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey to return. 

Russia propped up Assad’s regime, and his defeat is an embarrassment to Vladimir Putin’s global ambitions. Moscow is unlikely to completely abandon its entire Syria investment, and has reached out to HTS, including to protect some of its military assets. Assad’s defeat is another blow to Iran’s axis of influence after a series of them this year. Israel is expanding into Syria, and has launched around 350 strikes on military sites and alleged chemical weapons stockpiles facilities in recent days. Israel has called these actions preemptive, but their goals are not entirely clear, though these are exactly the kind of destabilizing actions that would quickly upset a delicate and shaky government transition process. 

The United States, too, has conducted bombing campaigns against ISIS targets in Syria, which it says is in an effort to prevent a resurgence of the terror group in a power vacuum. Incoming President Donald Trump has said Syria is not the U.S.’s problem, but it will be up to his administration to determine what to do with the 900 U.S. troops still stationed there – and, likely, how to treat HTS. 

Perhaps the worst outcome for Syria would be another version of outside powers picking a side and vying for control. That’s fundamentally why allowing and empowering a Syrian-led process is so critical, as it may buffer attempts at outside power grabs. 

None of this is a guarantee for success, but Syria does have a real chance to chart an entirely new future after half a century of oppression and conflict. The first step, said El-Gamal, “is just listening to Syria, and to those Syrian voices, particularly those who’ve been involved in these political negotiations, in that political process, over the last decade.”