If trends continue, the US could face a shortage of hospital beds in the relatively near future that will worsen healthcare and likely lead to a lot of excess death. A study published on Wednesday found that the percentage of occupied beds is well above pre-pandemic levels, and if that percentage keeps rising things will get very bad.
In the decade leading up to Covid, the average hospital bed occupancy across the country was 63.9 percent. But according to the researchers publishing in JAMA Network Open, that number between May 2023 and April 2024 was 75.3 percent. According to CDC research, when national intensive care unit occupancy reaches 75 percent, 12,000 excess deaths follow two weeks later.
The increase in occupancy rate does not appear to be driven by an actual increase in hospitalizations, but by a pretty big decrease in the number of available, staffed hospital beds that are out there. And what’s driving that? Private equity.
“Our study was not designed to investigate the cause of the decline in staffed hospital beds, but other literature suggests it may be due to healthcare staffing shortages, primarily among registered nurses, as well as hospital closures partially driven by the practice of private equity firms purchasing hospitals and effectively selling them for parts,” said study lead author Richard Leuchter of UCLA, according to a press release.
By modeling out expected hospitalizations for the aging US population over the next decade, the researchers found that an occupancy rate for adult hospital beds of 85 percent might arrive by 2032; for adult and pediatric beds combined, the target date is 2035. A level that high would mean long emergency department wait times and poorer care — medication errors, missed diagnoses, and so on.
“If the US were to sustain a national hospital occupancy of 85 percent or greater, it is likely that we would see tens to hundreds of thousands of excess American deaths each year,” Leuchter said. Private equity’s invasion into the healthcare industry has only picked up steam over the past decade, and there doesn’t seem to be much appetite from anyone in a position to do so to try and push it back. American healthcare is already a teetering mess compared to similarly rich countries; without some major sea change, it’s going to get worse.
GET SPLINTER RIGHT IN YOUR INBOX
The Truth Hurts
