Yes, tucked inside the trade deal is a provision that EU countries will import $250 billion of fossil and nuclear products each year for the next three years. As one expert told Reuters, the number “exceeds market realities,” a nice way of saying this is a magic number that means nothing.
The US already produces more oil and gas than any nation at any point in history; while Trump is doing everything he can to spur even more production, it is not about to triple overnight. Much of it is already exported, and other countries that buy American oil and gas aren’t about to happily defer their imports to their European friends. There just isn’t enough out there to make the numbers add up.
And then there’s Europe’s plans, such as they are, to reduce overall fossil fuel use moving forward, a project that has already seen a lot of success. Even as domestic European production has reduced substantially over time, imports have not skyrocketed to compensate; according to the European Commission’s data, crude oil imports peaked around the mid-2000s, and have declined, if unsteadily, since then. Fossil gas imports, second to crude oil, have remained largely steady for a decade.
Renewable energy’s stunning growth is pushing the dirty stuff aside. According to a January 2025 report from energy think tank Ember, the EU’s use of fossil gas has declined for five consecutive years, and solar power now accounts for more electricity production than coal. The expansion of solar and wind power actually allowed the EU to avoid about $68 billion in fuel import costs, a trend that is not about to suddenly reverse. In fact, in May of this year, the entire EU’s electricity generation from fossil fuels fell below 25 percent of the total for the first time ever. Meanwhile, the first four months of this year saw a 26.4 percent increase in electric vehicle sales compared with the same period only one year earlier.
The EU’s existing climate targets for 2030, if met, would mean a drop in oil demand of 16 percent; gas demand would fall by 30 percent. A proposed 2040 target, now under consideration at the European Commission, is even more aggressive, with an emissions reduction of 90 percent below 1990 levels. Adopting that target, the Commission says, would help by “avoiding wasted investments in the fossil fuel economy.” Which part of that sounds like a tripled fossil fuel buy from the belligerent and unpredictable neighbor across the pond?
As many have pointed out, the number thrown in the trade deal doesn’t seem to have any connection to reality; the EU doesn’t even have a say in what energy companies based there import, so where the teeth for this promise comes from is unclear. It seems more like a way to get the fanatic ranting about windmills off your lawn, so he can go home and brag about big round numbers to anyone willing to listen.
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