Polls Are Bad, but Finally We Found One That Is Good
People in politics and those who follow politics closely know, by now, that polls are bad, mostly because they’re subject to a host of potential fallacies and poor data selection and because people can cherry-pick from them and use them to push the useless framing of politics as horse race.
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
- 
        
        
            
 
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
        