Iran Strikes Back at the US in Qatar, and a Theory About This War Arises

After Trump bombed Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, Iran hit back at a US base in Qatar today. I know the natural question to ask now is how successful both strikes were, but that’s not a query that is easy to answer this early in the fog of war, nor am I qualified to make that assessment (Trump is mad about some reports suggesting they were not as effective as he said they were, for what it’s worth), but there is something resembling a larger narrative emerging from the haze of what happened.

The New York Times reported that “Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice to Qatari officials that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the US but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp,” and this heads-up was also corroborated by Axios. This comes on the heels of the US reportedly doing the same and telling Iran that this was a “one-off.” There is hope that this was just a telegraphed tit-for-tat exchange that both autocratic regimes could use to whip up domestic support. That’s already happened in Iran, but has only moved the eminently predictable GOP in the United States so far.

Trump and Iran were scheduled to negotiate before Israel interrupted with their bombing campaign, and the reports are that the cable news president changed his mind about bombing Iran because he liked how cable news covered Israel’s strikes. Every report and theory must be taken with infinite grains of salt right now (especially for us children of the Iraq War), and we should all take particular caution to check and double-check and quintuple-check things in our horribly poisoned information environment where Sean Hannity is deleting posts because Wired found that he shared fake news that spread like wildfire. Without invoking the Rumsfeldian unknown unknowns bit, it is extremely difficult to know anything for certain in war. This is what soldiers, generals, intelligence officials, journalists and war historians have been trying to figure out for centuries, and Sean Hannity certainly isn’t going to be the first guy to crack the case.

But given that Trump is reportedly the “biggest threat to opsec,” we do have an unprecedented look into a mad king’s court, to say nothing of the court’s affinity for group texting in front of Russian and Chinese intelligence. This administration leaks like the Titanic, which is part of why the media likes Trump so much, so all the “reportedlys” flying around from plugged-in administration sources are worth trusting to varying degrees right now. Shit like this, though? Babybrained warmongering nonsense I’ve been decrying since I first got my wings as an internet poster. The media, per usual, is not sending their best to the blogs of war. Pay this garbage no mind.

Are you fucking kidding me

[image or embed]

— Hemry, Local Bartender (@bartenderhemry.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:45 PM

I can’t fucking believe we’re doing this.

[image or embed]

— Tim Onion (@bencollins.bsky.social) June 21, 2025 at 7:53 PM

But reports from sources and actual war reporters are all pointing towards a dynamic where it sure looks like Israel is trying to drag the US into war, as even Senators are emboldened to assert so. All while Israel’s president feels the need to deny what we have seen take place in public where Trump’s Vice President said this is a war designed to demolish the Iranian nuclear program, and hours later, the cable news doofus rebuked him and moved closer to Israel’s line of thinking while threating to do his best Iraq War impersonation.

Trump is no dove, but he is a coward who understands how his already precarious trade war economy would not be aided by rising oil prices, and Iran has been severely weakened by Israel’s attack. Israel is in a unprecedently strong position as a regional hegemon, as it has debilitated Iran’s defenses through these strikes, its ongoing campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and how its genocide of Gaza has crippled Hamas’ infrastructure. The current dynamics seem like such that Iran and the US are incentivized to deescalate because war exposes different degrees of internal weaknesses for each regime, which makes Israel, the globe’s chief escalatory force, the X-factor in this equation.

Are they satisfied with the immense gains they’ve made against Iran, or do they want to truly pursue regime change in a mountain fortress with 90 million people living in it? If they do, the notion they are not trying to drag the US to war is farcical because they simply do not have the resources necessary to occupy a landmass that large, diverse and populated who few in human history have been able to control.

Israel has already successfully dragged Trump into what looks like an agreed-upon tit-for-tat propaganda strike with Iran, and as any good drug dealer knows, getting your addict to take that first hit is a key step. Israel is very explicit about their desire for Iranian regime change, even bombing sites housing political prisoners of the Iranian regime to make a point about its fragility. Just based on what we can say we know at this very nascent moment in the war with Iran, Israel is the tail wagging the cable news addicted dog. What unfolds from here will be dependent on what next steps the Israeli regime takes, and how enthralled our diminished president is when his favorite Fox News hairpieces present it to him.

UPDATE: