It should go without saying that a review of this nature should have taken place long ago, probably around the very point that it became clear that Israel was habitually blowing up children. In fact, there have been calls for a review sounding from within the bloc for quite some time now. Ireland and Spain, two of the member states most critical of Israel, proposed it as far back as February 2024, but it was only recently, after the Dutch foreign minister suggested it, that the decision was made to actually get on with the assessment. Progress, in a sense, has been made, but whether or not it will lead to any genuine consequences for Israel is a dubious prospect at best.
If the E.U. really was to act on its findings, the impact could be genuinely significant. While Israel is only the E.U.’s 31st biggest trading partner, accounting for about 0.8 percent of the bloc’s trade in goods, the E.U. is conversely a hugely important partner to Israel, making up 32 percent of its total trade and representing its single biggest trading partner. The E.U., in other words, holds a huge amount of economic leverage over Israel, but has never acted to use it.
In theory, the E.U. could suspend the trade agreement and Israel would be hit hard—but that is extremely unlikely to actually happen. Such a move would have to be agreed upon by all 27 member states, which would necessarily mean Israel’s staunchest, most steadfast supporters in Europe—states like Germany, Hungary, Czechia, Italy and others—performing wild, neck-breaking U-turns. There is no reason to think that has any chance of occurring any time soon.
Moreover, there are no guarantees that even Israel’s critics in Europe would vote to suspend the trade agreement. Spain and Ireland are among those that most vocally oppose Israeli violence, but they, too, retain significant trading interests in the region. Although it pulled out of an Israeli ammo contract recently in response to domestic public pressure, Spain has nonetheless reportedly issued 46 contracts to Israeli arms companies since the beginning of the Gaza war, with some of those deals focused on things like missiles and rocket launchers. Ireland is perhaps the loudest of all Western critics of Israel, yet it has been found, despite its bluster and sometimes-strong rhetoric, to be Israel’s second-biggest national trading partner. Perhaps that explains why its government has, for many years now, stalled the progression of a proposed bill to stop goods and services being imported from illegal Israeli settlements. Irish leaders are all talk.
Some E.U. member states have, at times over the last 20 months, felt compelled to act against Israel in very minor ways. Some countries, including France, have reduced arms sales, but that is a far cry away from an outright arms ban. That would actually be an effective action, given that a single member state, Germany, provides about a third of Israel’s major arms imports, not to mention the smaller amounts provided by a host of other member states. The United States would obviously remain Israel’s most important ally and arms provider in the event of an European ban, but Israel would nonetheless feel it.
It is unlikely to happen. The European Union, as ever, speaks in the language of human rights and international law, but it will do nothing of substance to actually adhere to those lofty principles. At its worst, the bloc and its member states actively support the genocide with weapons and diplomatic cover, while crushing pro-Palestinian dissent within its borders. At its best, it wrings its hands and utters vague concerns about human rights abuses while doing nothing. It essentially stalls for time in the hope that the war ends and Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians isn’t in the news quite so much. It pines for the days of business as usual.
The E.U. really could do something here. The bloc’s decline is obvious, and its growing irrelevance on the global stage is increasingly plain to see, but it remains an economic force strong enough to really hurt the Israeli economy as a consequence for its genocide, if only it had the will to do it. But it does not. All it has to offer are the empty platitudes of its morally bereft leaders.
GET SPLINTER RIGHT IN YOUR INBOX
The Truth Hurts
