Verified Voter Data Disproves the Notion that White Zoomer Men Are All Budding Fascists

Democrats abandoned their base in 2024. This widespread notion that they lost because of a rightward shift in America belies the actual data from the election itself. The GOP getting a larger percentage of the Black youth vote doesn’t necessarily mean they got more of the vote, it could mean Democrats got less. Michael Podhorzer, former political director of the AFL-CIO, wrote the definitive How Trump “Won” article on the election for my money. He uses an example of “flatland” where the media looks at politics like the Red Sox versus the Yankees, rather than the “3D-Land” world that humans live in where non-voters are included in the totals.

If you only measure how much support the Red Sox and the Yankees get, that will distort your view of how the rest of America’s apathetic non-Red Sox and Yankees fans look at that matchup. Podhorzer’s VoteCast data estimates that about 19 million people who voted for Biden four years ago stayed home. America didn’t move right, the tenuous anti-Trump 2020 coalition collapsed under the weight of Joe Biden’s unpopularity and widespread dissatisfaction with a Democratic Party elite currently supporting a Trump-backed challenger to the Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York City.

Per usual, the educational divide in America shines through in election data. There is one Gen-Z group that Trump made up a lot of ground with in this CES: men aged 18-29 who have a high school degree or less. The growing global gender divide also shows up in this file, as support from women of the same age remained low with just a slight uptick, along with a slight downtick of women aged 45 and older (although the slight downtick in support from men aged 45 to 64 with a high school degree or less is notable).

The slope of those lines tells the story of Trump’s supposed popularity, and it’s one of diminishing returns. Many of the 18–29-year-olds in Trump’s key educational demographic are taking a ride on this exciting delusion for the first time while their female counterparts largely roll their eyes at them. But every other group’s line above is mostly flat. Trump’s base is his base, and it doesn’t budge very much, but it also doesn’t grow much either. He narrowly won in 2016 on the back of a spike in men without high school degrees voting for him, and narrowly lost in 2020 when he lost the young part of this cohort, then narrowly won in 2024 when he gained more of them back again. We’ve basically had the same presidential election three times in a row while shuffling a few hundred thousand voters around.

The story of 2024 is not the right-wingification of a new fascist America, but a collapse in Democratic support that exposed a shrinking base who cannot match the fervor of the Trump coalition. Like Republicans, Democrats also lost support among Gen-Z men between 2020 and 2024, but their losses were more acute among Zoomer women, netting out to a steeper decline when looked at through the Red Sox vs. Yankees lens of the two-party vote share.

The narrative you have been sold by the mainstream media about the 2024 election is wrong. Their Very Serious brains can only see elections as Very Serious mandates justifying their failed lives cosplaying as journalists, and it is utterly foreign for them to consider the notion that someone fell ass backwards into victory because their opponents are the most incompetent group of geriatrics on the planet outside of Trump’s inner circle. The dissatisfaction the vast majority of you feel with the Democratic Party per every poll on the planet is the story of the 2024 election, and Zoomers, don’t worry, I know much of the world may be telling you guys that you’re all a bunch of irredeemable fascists, but there’s no data to support it.