Flightline on Fire: Spectacular images of SBU special operation “Web” to destroy enemy bomber aircraft.The SBU says over 40 have been destroyed, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers and A-50 aircraft. The enemy’s losses already exceed $2 billion, the SBU says.
[image or embed]
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 1, 2025 at 5:35 AM
These strikes took place all over Russia, extending deep into their territory.
NEW: Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against multiple air bases in Russia. Ukraine continues to innovate its drone technology and tactics to achieve operational surprise and successfully target Russian military infrastructure in the rear. isw.pub/UkrWar060125
[image or embed]
— Institute for the Study of War (@thestudyofwar.bsky.social) June 1, 2025 at 9:17 PM
This is a stunning attack that struck a huge blow to Russia’s guided-missile attacks and its capability to strike in the event of a nuclear war. Russia is known to have about 100 Tupolev bombers, and Ukraine said it had destroyed more than 40 of them. Russia did not put a number to it but they did confirm losses at their air bases, claiming they repelled part of what they called a terrorist attack without providing any evidence of doing so.
There is a line of (incorrect) thought that has sprung up since Ukraine’s attack that is apologetic for Russia no matter how its adherents try to frame it, arguing that this strike will escalate the war dramatically. While that is certainly possible, it misses the fact that every act in war has the potential to escalate it, and we only know that it did after the fact. There were plenty of people making the same argument last year when Ukraine invaded Russia and claimed some of its territory and that did not escalate the war the way many folks thought it could. Those asserting this strike inside Russian territory is bound to bear fruit for Ukraine should also tap the breaks, as the Kursk offensive into Russia last year did not force Russia to change its behavior in eastern Ukraine the way they had hoped. War is messy, and it is difficult to know anything through its fog.
That invasion did give Kyiv some leverage in negotiations though, which was part of the point of both that operation and the one that unfolded over the weekend. Ukraine and Russia met for peace talks today, a couple weeks after the first round of talks resulted in an agreement on the largest prisoner exchange of the war, but this round did not yield any results. Russia is making maximalist demands in these talks, pushing to have Ukraine recognize their illegal annexation of regions in eastern Ukraine in exchange for a ceasefire being demanded by the US and Ukraine.
Those saying that this has the potential to escalate are missing the flip side of the unknown, which is that this act could force Russia to the negotiating table by weakening their bargaining position. They have less of an ability to strike with long-range bombers than they did before, and there is a big question of whether they would be able to fight a full-scale nuclear war. Accepting that this will be inherently escalatory assumes that Russia will maintain the same capacity to wage war that they did before operation Spiderweb, and by all accounts, they don’t.
We don’t know what the future holds, and any escalatory strike is obviously worrisome because of the uncertainty it brings, but this is not the first time Ukraine has struck inside of Russian territory. Based on the very small sample of one, it’s likelier that this will not dramatically escalate the war than it will. Those alleging that this makes direct Russian fighting with the US and NATO more likely are ignoring how Ukraine just destroyed much of Russia’s capability to wage that kind of war. Russia’s bombing capability is degraded to some degree–that’s the headline–and Ukraine is trying to use this moment to force them into a more reasonable bargaining position.
GET SPLINTER RIGHT IN YOUR INBOX
The Truth Hurts
