It is tempting to indulge in smugness, upon learning of Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzlement. Here we have a far-right xenophobe who, over the years, has taken a holier-than-thou attitude on the subject of political corruption in France, going so far in 2013 as to indignantly call for the introduction of “lifelong ineligibility for those who have been convicted of acts committed while in office.” Well, twelve years and a personal conviction later, Le Pen has rather changed her tune, railing now against the “witch hunt” she has been subjected to. Her obvious, pathetic hypocrisy would, in a perfect world, afford us a moment to savor in her humiliation, but, in reality, this is unlikely to be the end of Marine Le Pen, and, crucially, it is certainly not the end of the far-right movement she embodies. Her guilty verdict, if anything, may serve to charge it.
Le Pen, as a consequence of her conviction, will be placed under house arrest for two years and is banned from public office for the next five. This is a critical point, because, in 2027, there is set to be a presidential election in France, and, until very recently, she was the favorite to win it. Le Pen will now paint her conviction as a purposeful attempt by the French establishment to take her down because of the clear threat she posed to their power, and, troublingly, it’s a difficult account to argue with. That’s not suggest a crime didn’t take place—to the contrary, there is every reason to trust the court’s verdict that Le Pen really did misuse European Union funding worth millions of euros. The problem is that the very corruption Le Pen was convicted of is rife in European politics, yet, aside from her, very few people ever get taken down for it.
Early last year, an investigation undertaken by a range of European media outlets found that a quarter of all sitting members of the European Parliament (MEPs) had, at one point or another, been accused of offenses such as corruption, nepotism and outright bribery. But, of the 253 cases that were highlighted by the report, only 23 actually resulted in convictions. It seems strange that there should be so few guilty verdicts, given how many accusations were documented, and that Le Pen, at a time when she threatened the European establishment, would later become one of the few people to be punished for such behavior. That is not a detail likely to pass by a disillusioned, pissed off French electorate.
Then there’s the case of Christine Lagarde, one of the most powerful people in Europe. Back in 2016, while she was serving as the head of the International Monetary Fund, Lagarde was found guilty of negligence for misusing French taxpayer money back when she was the country’s finance minister in 2008. Not only did Lagarde avoid jail for that, despite her guilty verdict, but she also kept her job with the IMF and later went on to become the president of the European Central Bank, an immensely powerful role that she still holds today. And, while her and Le Pen’s respective cases can’t be compared directly, it’s fair to say the optics aren’t great. On the one hand, we have an establishment darling convicted of a crime but not receiving a punishment, while, on the other, we have an avowedly anti-establishment figure, apparently getting close to power, who actually was punished for a crime of a similar nature. Accusations of double standards will be hard to dismiss.
The European far right is, at least in part, powered today by a righteous sense that the corrupt establishment is interested only in perpetuating its own power, and that these centrists will resort to authoritarian action if that is what’s required. Its instinct on that is, in many ways, correct. Power truly has become more centralized in Europe lately, while the bloc and its member states have frequently acted in profoundly anti-democratic, extralegal ways. Illegal migrant pushbacks take place with horrifying regularity along the E.U.’s borders, while support for Israel’s genocide of Gaza remains strong among the bloc’s elite, leading ostensibly liberal member states like Germany to crack down hard on pro-Palestinian activism. Romania’s far-right presidential candidate was recently banned by a court from taking office, in a case reflective of what happened to Le Pen, and, in general, there is a widespread feeling that, when push comes to shove, Europe’s liberals are decidedly illiberal when it suits their own objectives. Both the radical right and the left are targets, but, so far, it is the former proving most adept at tapping into the rage and disgust being generated.
In the short term, it’s possible that the establishment’s actions may manage to suppress the French far right. Le Pen herself is central to the appeal of Rassemblement National, so, without her leading the way, the party may well struggle to find a suitable replacement to stand in the 2027 election in her stead. But, even if that happens, she is only 56. What happens when her ban expires in five years? Or, what happens if another far-right demagogue rises in the meantime? The xenophobic poison of far-right politics runs deeper in France and Europe now than a general liking for Marine Le Pen, and it will need to be defeated by means greater than that of mere lawfare. It will take a movement, and, obviously, the hollowed-out center cannot be the one to lead it. It is a task for the left, which needs to act fast to win people on side.
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