Over 119 days after Trump’s promise to end the war between Russia and Ukraine on day one, the president of the United States is beginning to realize that he and Vladimir Putin may not have the same interests. Sure, when it comes to Trump’s rampant corruption, there is always going to be an alignment between him and whatever autocrat knows they can buy him off, but when a country’s actual material interests come into play, Trump is learning it’s not that simple.
Trump: “I’m not happy with what Putin is doing. He’s killing a lot of people and I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin. I’ve known him a long time … we’re in the middle of talking and he’s shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don’t like it at all. I’m surprised.”
The Kremlin responded to Trump’s rambling diatribe by saying he was showing signs of “emotional overload” (the worst person you know makes a great point dot jpg) and the bromance between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump has never been icier. Trump said he is now considering “large scale” sanctions on Russia, and William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told the Wall Street Journal that it “seems to be that Trump is on the verge of concluding—or has concluded—that Putin is the obstacle.”
The US and Russia agreed to a prisoner swap today, several days after the UK and EU imposed new sanctions on Russia, so the two sides still have demonstrated some ability to work together. The Kremlin is working to separate Trump from our allies, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “President Trump is a man who wants results,” upon the announcement of this exchange, all while claiming that Trump’s efforts were being “sabotaged” by Europe. Shameless flattery of Trump’s ego is perhaps the primary method that foreign diplomats use to try to manipulate him and here we see it unfolding again.
This is a terrific example of where Trump’s main interest, using the presidency to enrich himself, comes into conflict with the actual interests of the presidency. Trump staked his reputation on ending the war in Ukraine on “day one,” seemingly assuming that his longtime, uh, Russian business relationship I guess, could overrule the single biggest ambition of Russia’s chief kleptocrat who has long desired to drag the country back to the 19th century. Now that Trump is realizing that other countries’ leaders have interests that go beyond standard corruption, he is running into issues attempting to rule by declarative King-like fiat like he thinks he can.
China basically just didn’t have to pick up the phone to his increasingly desperate calls, and they won a major concession from Trump in his trade war without having to give anything up. Canada does not have any interest in becoming our 51st state, and Trump seems genuinely flummoxed by their insistence on maintaining their sovereignty, and now due to his intransigence, Canada is targeting red states and districts with their sanctions. Aside from there being a very straightforward explanation for why this is all so crazy, the President of the United States honestly seems to be mystified by the concept of individual agency. He lives in a cloistered world surrounded by cable news and yes men who have given up their basic humanity to join the assembly line licking dear leaders’ boot, and when he leaves his safe space for doddering autocrats, Trump simply does not know how to interact with humanity at large.
As much as corruption is the lodestar of this administration, corruption can only go so far as a governing principle, and Trump is beginning to learn that with Russia. Countries have real material interests and some countries’ leaders have more advanced goals than trying to steal enough money to make their dads finally love them, and Trump is finding himself isolated more and more each day. Vladimir Putin’s corrupt aims only go so far to bridge the gap between the US and Russia, and Trump is learning that he cannot simply buy off a man motivated by taking Ukraine and reclaiming past Russian history. The Trump and Putin bromance seems to be approaching its end, and what lies on the other side of this fissure is anyone’s guess, but one thing is for certain: a more bellicose relationship between the United States and Russia historically leads nowhere good.
