Portuguese politics are playing out in much the same way as those of the rest of Europe at the moment. The far right is marching throughout the continent, and it is fairly easy to see why. Living standards have collapsed, and the establishment politicians who oversaw that collapse offer no solutions whatsoever—while the left, it basically goes without saying, remains an electoral irrelevance, at least for now. The far right, though, offers a simple, coherent explanation for what has happened to Europe: migration has spiraled out of control. The solution? Get rid of the migrants.
The anti-migrant fervor gripping Europe has placed the centrist establishment in a bind. It is still possible to hear some of them dutifully speaking in empty platitudes, referring vaguely to “European values” and the paramount importance of stimulating GDP growth, but, really, that bullshit isn’t capturing very many imaginations these days. Other tactics, then, are being adopted in their craven bid to hold onto power: war-mongering, increased authoritarianism, and the adoption of anti-migrant rhetoric, borrowed directly from the far right. Certain elements of the left, too, have been spouting anti-migrant talking points, as with Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany.
Squint, and there’s a logic to be discerned from this rightward move. European societies have, for a long time now, been trapped in a bitter culture war, and, clearly, momentum is with the anti-migrant warriors. People are increasingly being lured to vote for those representing these anti-migrant views, so, in order to pull them back again, concessions have to be made. Adopt certain policies and talking points from the far right, present them as your own, and hopefully that will keep enough of those wayward voters on your side.
The problem with that approach, quite apart from its moral repugnance, is that there’s no real evidence to suggest it works. To the contrary, the precise opposite may be true. In 2022 researchers set out to test whether or not it made electoral sense for mainstream parties to adopt the radical right’s positions on immigration, and, having studied 12 countries in Western Europe, they concluded it did not. “If anything,” they wrote, “our results suggest that they lead to more voters defecting to the radical right.”
Feeding anti-migrant hysteria will not save the fortunes of the establishment, but, rather, may only serve to empower the very far right that now threatens it. It will stoke an already feverish atmosphere of xenophobia currently swirling throughout Europe, and it may lead to the harm of real people. But, with a potentially bruising election coming up, it is precisely what this failed Portuguese government has decided to roll the dice on. It recently announced that 18,000 illegal migrants—people mostly from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal—will be deported over the next few months, and it is difficult not to view this as a desperate, last-ditch attempt to claw back some votes from the grasp of Chega.
Migration is a touchy subject these days, but it is not going anywhere. The world is succumbing to war and climate breakdown, meaning ever greater numbers of people are soon to be on the move in search of safety. This will undoubtedly place a big strain on European societies, but the solution to that cannot be, as is happening already, the dehumanization of those who arrive. Not every societal problem can be pinned to these people, as war, climate change and rising inequality are the true threats to European society. These are the issues liberals and the left should be mobilizing around, but it is much easier to punch down than it is to challenge the powerful. So the far right will be aped, and Europe will drift into an ever darker place.
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