In the midst of the devastating wildfires that swallowed parts of Los Angeles whole in January, researchers from the University of California system and elsewhere in the country and world released a paper about what’s known as “climate whiplash.” Referring to the rapid swings back and forth from extreme dry conditions to extreme wet, the researchers found that such whiplash events have increased by between 31 and 66 percent globally since the mid-twentieth century. In a related story, Los Angeles is about to get what will likely be one of its biggest rain storms of the year this week.
With rain totals in various part of Southern California slated to reach three inches through Thursday and Friday — and up to five inches higher up in foothills and mountains — there is now an elevated risk for landslides. Wildfire leaves hillsides scarred and loose, ready to tumble down with whatever human bits still remain on them. The National Weather Service warned that “people in or near to recent burn areas will need to by hyper vigilant of weather conditions” especially late Thursday night, when rainfall rates could approach one inch per hour.
That paper on climate whiplash has more bad news: if the world reaches 3 degrees C of warming — not far off from the 2.7 degrees current global policies have us slated for — than the whiplash events will double in frequency yet again. The atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning it can release more of it at once, just as extended droughts get more likely as well. Los Angeles gets a grim demonstration this week.
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