Sure Seems Like a Lot of Traveling for Not All That Much to Happen

Ahead of the Alaska summit, the consensus hardened around this idea that Trump hosting Putin was a win for Russia, no matter what, but a good outcome of the summit would be if nothing much happened. Putin indeed got the symbolic win, applauded back into the community of nations, on U.S. soil, as if Russia were an equal superpower to America. But the two did not get a deal, though Trump left repeating Putin’s stance that a ceasefire was unnecessary, and seemed to be behind the idea of Ukraine ceding territory as the key to any settlement. 

Zelenskyy and the Europeans then swept in, latching on to this idea that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff made that “Article 5-like security arrangements“ were on the table, referring to the shorthand for NATO’s collective defense clause. The Europeans sweet-talked Trump enough to get some buy-in on security guarantees, although Trump has already said it will not include U.S. troops on the ground but may involve “air support.” But the details are still very unclear, and that doesn’t exactly sound Article-5-like.

The Europeans seemed satisfied enough that they averted the worst-case scenario of Trump completely deferring to Putin. Leaders compared Ukraine ceding Donetsk as akin to the U.S. giving up eastern Florida, and depressingly, this seemed to get through to Trump, according to the Financial Times. But again, the victory seemed to be the lack of any outcome. It leaves Europe and Ukraine in a constant state of vigilance that Trump is about to do something dramatic, and it failed to offer any realistic pathway to pausing the conflict or achieving peace for Ukraine.

Maybe something more tangible will emerge from this, and the movement is hard to see right now because it’s all a bit unorthodox – usually when you get to the part where leaders are shuttling across continents it’s because the deal really is close to being done. 

Right now, Trump seems mostly focused on trying to make this bilateral meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin happen. The White House claims Putin is open to it, but Moscow has not confirmed, and it almost certainly won’t. Putin does not see Zelenskyy as a legitimate president, or Ukraine as an equal power to be negotiated with. Putin’s version of an Alaska summit is an unconditional surrender by Zelenskyy. 

Which gets to the underlying problem that Trump still hasn’t grasped: Putin doesn’t really want to stop his war in Ukraine, and he has no incentive to do so now. 

Trump doesn’t have much leverage, but what little he does possess, he has no interest in using. He could impose more sanctions on Russia, although those are unlikely to throttle Russia’s war machine. He could plan with European allies to fully seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets. He could even offer some concessions he seems to want to make anyway, like economic deals or cooperation with Russia to welcome Putin back into polite geopolitical society. Those may be uncomfortable and a little gross, but Republicans will let the master dealmaker get away with them – and if it could somehow achieve a better outcome for Ukraine, perhaps it is worth it in the long run. 

Because that’s what any peace deal in Ukraine should be about: trying to get the best possible outcome for Kyiv despite the very, very lousy options. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died defending Ukraine. More than 13,000 civilians have been killed, with some of the highest casualties since the start of the war happening this summer. More than two-thirds of Ukrainians are now saying they want a negotiated settlement to end the invasion rather than continuing the fight. Ukraine will ultimately have to give up territory in some form. That Putin will get away with at least a de facto redrawing of Ukraine is troubling, but that is the reality of the current international order. Despite what Trump believes, Russia is a diminished power, but it is still a nuclear one.

What Ukraine needs in exchange are legitimate security guarantees to ensure that Putin doesn’t try this again. Figuring out what will deter Russia and protect peace in Europe is complex and extraordinarily difficult. Nothing from this week signals that the U.S., Ukraine, or Europe are anywhere close to that point. Instead, negotiations are centered around Trump and his efforts to rack up his (wildly inflated) record of “ending” wars. But even if Russia and Ukraine oblige and sign some kind of deal, it would just be the start of years, likely decades, of implementation and monitoring and diplomacy. That is at odds with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. 

At Monday’s meeting with European leaders, Trump was caught on a hot mic telling French President Emmanuel Macron that Putin “wants to make a deal for me.” That seems to be the conclusion everyone has reached, that they must convince Trump they’re seeking peace and security because of him alone. The Alaska Summit and the White House meeting confirmed that the battle for Trump’s ego may ultimately decide Ukraine’s future.