It’s Early, But Tropical Storm Erin Has Menacing Potential

By Dave Levitan | August 12, 2025 | 11:42am

Satellite imagery via NOAA

Climate Hurricanes

It’s Early, But Tropical Storm Erin Has Menacing Potential

As the National Hurricane Center says in its latest update on Tuesday morning, it is too early to tell. But: right now Tropical Storm Erin is churning away in the East Atlantic, with a projected path that would make it a major hurricane early on Sunday not that far to the northeast of Puerto Rico. It is worth keeping an eye on.

So far, hurricane season in the Atlantic basin has been quiet. No storms formed early, in May, as has been an increasing trend in recent years; the first four named storms — Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter — came and went with little fanfare out over the ocean and you would be forgiven to have not heard the names at all. The ocean’s heat content, while still far above what might have been considered normal a few decades back, is not quite at levels seen in recent years, perhaps damping the season so far.

Most Popular

But it is, of course, August, the part of the year where hurricane season generally swings into action. At 5 am ET on Tuesday, Erin had sustained winds of 45 mph, but it is predicted to reach hurricane strength by Thursday. By the weekend it could reach major hurricane status, with winds above 110 mph, though the projected track that far out remains hazy at this point. Still, at the 11 am ET update, the NHC upped its warning specifically to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. “Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm,” the NHC said. There is more uncertainty still for the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the US.

After a catastrophic 2024 punctuated by the devastation of Hurricane Helene, and early projections for an above-normal 2025, it is hard to say whether the quiet start has increased the sense of dread or blanketed us with a false sense of security; meanwhile, research is piling up on just how devastating to public health big hurricanes can be, long after the floodwaters recede.

By this point last year, two hurricanes — Beryl and Debby — had formed, both causing some severe problems across the Caribbean and into the US. The region has been lucky so far; if it’s not Erin, it will be the next storm. “As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season,” the NWS warned, about the approaching September 10 milestone, “this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.”