The GOP’s Internal Polling Must Be Brutal

By Jacob Weindling  |  August 6, 2025 | 11:22am
Photo by The White House
Elections Polling
The GOP’s Internal Polling Must Be Brutal

Credit to Bobby Big Wheel for first pointing this out, but I would just like to echo and expand on his point that in the face of this redistricting farce being perpetrated by Trump and the Texas Republican Party, there is really only one conclusion you can take from their desire to redraw the Congressional map: their polls must suck. John Ray, Senior Director of Polling at YouGov, quoted this assertion and wrote, “confirmed.”

Yes, this is rampant authoritarianism. Yes, it is an example of the ongoing fragmentation of the United States that I wrote about the day of Trump’s inauguration. Yes, this is very bad. The Republican Party is coming to disenfranchise everyone in America who doesn’t vote for them. The logical end of this push is taxation without representation, demanding that we subject ourselves to the whims of their King’s rule forever. It is very important that Democrats win this battle to resist an authoritarian overreach, but it’s also vital that we do not give the Republican Party power it has not earned. People hate them and we should point this out more.

Per The Downballot’s tracker, Democrats are currently running 15.9 percent ahead of their 2024 presidential results in 2025 special elections, and 11.7 percent ahead of their 2020 results. Democrats have been so competitive in red districts that they spooked Trump into pulling Elise Stefanik’s UN nomination over fears the GOP may lose a seat she just won by 24 points. That was the first indication that their internal polling did resemble what we are seeing in special elections, and the evidence has only mounted since then. We shouldn’t overstate these special election victories, as since 2017, Democrats have flipped the script on low turnout elections and beat Republicans silly practically every time dear leader isn’t on the ballot–but the margins that Democrats are putting up are impressive.

RESULT: Democrats have defended a state Senate seat in Rhode Island by a margin of 82% to 16%. So that’s a victory by 66 percentage points.

Harris had carried this district by 11 percentage points in November. This is the 2nd biggest overperformance for Democrats so far this year.

— Daniel Nichanian (@taniel.bsky.social) August 5, 2025 at 6:27 PM

They have obviously spooked the Republican Party into trying to steal five seats from Texas, and now Indiana Governor Mike Braun confirmed that Vice President JD Vance will visit the state to discuss potential redistricting. This is not just a Texas thing, it’s a nationwide push by Trump to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters ahead of the 2026 elections. Per Politico’s reporting, “Indiana Gov. Mike Braun is noncommittal on calling a special session to mid-decade redistricting despite pressure from the White House, but said the issue could come up when Vice President JD Vance visits the Hoosier state.” How many other red state governors are getting calls from Trump pressuring them to redraw their Congressional maps?

The story told by Trump’s actions here is pretty straightforward. He was all set to make Stefanik his UN toady, then someone showed him GOP polling around the same time that Democrats were winning districts that Trump just won by 21 points and another which has voted Democrat for president just once since 1856, and all of a sudden, famed Signal leaker Mike Waltz is in line to be our next ambassador to the UN. Now Trump wants states to start redrawing districts around more GOP friendly lines. I wonder why!

It’s pretty clear that Trump thinks the current electoral map is not great for Republicans. This is an authoritarian power grab, but it’s coming from a point of weakness, not strength. They’re not consolidating support, it has collapsed, and Trump is now the second most unpopular president ever per CNN’s pollster Harry Enten, second only to himself. They have already lost their 2024 coalition and are trying to redraw the map around their core cultists who won’t leave Trump even if he acts like the guiltiest person alive around the mystery of who a billionaire pedophile sex trafficker raped children with.

This is a major moment in American history, but it is one battle in the ongoing war for the soul of our country. Outright white supremacist fascists have taken over the government, and they have been less popular today than they were yesterday every single day of their rule. Don’t ever forget that civil society outnumbers these monsters, and they clearly have the internal polling to prove it.

 
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